Together with the UFC’s next pay-per-view event just over three months away, it’s time to begin having a look at the betting odds for the card. Two bouts on the card have lines released, and they’re about as different as can be. In the main event, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his newly won UFC bantamweight title against the man he took it from, Renan Barao. In their first fight, Barao closed as a massive -910 favorite (bet $910 to acquire $100) over Dillashaw. The Team Alpha Male manhood ruled that first fight, scoring a fifth-round TKO in among the greatest statistical upsets in UFC history. This moment, the chances are much closer, with Dillashaw sitting at -140 and Barao the little underdog at +120 (bet $100 to win $120). There are eight extra bouts on the card which up until now didn’t have betting lines posted. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas altered that now as he released the complete UFC 177 gambling odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. ———— MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Bantamweight Title TJ Dillashaw -140 Renan Barao +100 Tony Ferguson -265 Danny Castillo +185 Bethe Correia -160 Shayna Baszler +120 Carlos Diego Ferreira -280 Ramsey Nijem +200 Yancy Medeiros -135 Damon Jackson -105 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Lorenz Larkin -140 Derek Brunson +100 Henry Cejudo -185 Scott Jorgensen +145 Anthony Hamilton -210 Ruan Potts +160 Joe Soto -125 Anthony Birchak -115 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Night, 7:30pm ET) Chris Wade -140 Cain Carrizosa +100 ————– Brad’s Analysis: I really want Bethe Correia to win this particular fight, just so that I never need to listen to anything about the ridiculous”Four Horsewomen” ever again. Nevertheless, Correia has never faced anyone of Baszler’s skill level, particularly when it comes to grappling. I believe Baszler is able to sift through Correia’s drag and striking this fight to the ground where she’ll have a distinct advantage. The greatest worry for me is about Baszler’s long layoff and injury woes of late, and it can be more than enough to keep me from betting her. Tony Ferguson seems like a nightmare matchup for Danny Castillo. Castillo has been labeled on the feet several times before, and unlike his charms against Tim Means or Anthony Njokuani, he won’t be able to fall back on his wrestling here if the striking does not go to plan. This should be quite competitive in all areas, but Ferguson has minor edges which should propel him to victory. Lorenz Larkin is only 27, but the decrease in his performances of late makes him seem more like a 37-year-old. He seemed totally listless against Brad Tavares for 10 minutes, and was quickly dispatched by Costas Philippou. On the flip side, Derek Brunson provided the toughest test of Yoel Romero’s livelihood in his latest bout. It feels like Larkin was really overvalued as a prospect while in Strikeforce, while Brunson had been missed. This is a very tough bout to call in terms of a negative or a total, so I’ll likely stay out entirely. On the other hand, I believe Ramsey Nijem is in for a rough night against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Nijem may have a wrestling edge here, but even that’s questionable. Ferreira is the far greater submission grappler, and probably even the better striker at this stage (although Nijem’s improvement in that respect last time out was nice to see). I expect Ferreira to get the win, and probably put another end on his resume either from his entry abilities or Nijem’s questionable chin. Henry Cejudo always made for interesting bouts when he was facing completely overmatched competition, so he’s up against a legitimate evaluation in Scott Jorgensen, I have to admit this is among my most anticipated bouts on the card. The physical benefits here belong to Cejudo, as does the wrestling advantage, obviously. He may not have the well-rounded skill set to prevent Jorgensen, but I believe he wins rounds using takedowns and scrambling. Cejudo handed one of the vital tests for prospects in his last outing too, getting broken square on the jaw and shaking it off to win not just the combat, but round as well. The major question with Cejudo, as always, is: how concentrated is he? Perhaps being signed with the UFC was that the impetus he needed to start taking the sport seriously, as in his past appearances (and non-appearances) using Legacy FC, it is quite obvious he has been coasting occasionally. Against Jorgensen that he might not be able to get away with a half attempt, and if he does it will make him much more particular. A Legacy veteran making his UFC debut with less fanfare is 39-year-old Richard Odoms. His sole loss came to UFC heavyweight Jared Rosholt, but he has generally been able to control and outhustle opponents to pick up choices. That will be hard against Ruslan Magomedov, who actually possesses decent cardio to get a heavyweight, to go together with his strong striking. Coming from nearly a year layoff, it’s difficult to expect much from Odoms, therefore I expect Magomedov to pick up the win, but he’s someone I fully expect to fade when he could pick up a couple more wins and confront adequate competition. The hype on Yancy Medeiros came a bit too quickly, and should nearly be snuffed out in this point. His striking defense looked atrocious against both Yves Edwards and Jim Miller, and his entry match was practically non-existent as he had been exploited within minutes of hitting the ground against Miller. Maybe that could work to the advantage of his backers from Justin Edwards however, as Edwards really isn’t UFC caliber, even at this time. Edwards has a fantastic guillotine, and not many different abilities, therefore Medeiros has this fight to win so long as he does not dive into that weapon. Edwards will probably come out fast, because he must know that a win will indicate the conclusion of his UFC employ. Talking of pink-slip derbies, the loser of Ruan Potts and Anthony Hamilton will likely be shown the door as well, because both place on foul dislpays in their UFC debuts. Potts is an aggressive — but not too talented — grappler, although Hamilton showed massive holes in his own grappling against Alexey Oleinik. On the other hand, Hamilton has some electricity and Potts was put out with one shot on the ground against Soa Palelei. Either man could complete this fight quickly and I wouldn’t be surprised, or else they could play it safe and we could be treated to some truly awful heavyweight MMA. In case the price for this particular bout to go over 1.5 rounds is large enough, I might just take a shot in hopes the bout is of the hilariously bad selection, but I can’t see myself putting considerably greater than Monopoly money down on this contest.
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